Kwantung versus the Siberian Army

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October 21, 1941.
Memorandum for the Chief of Staff:
Subject: Kwantung versus the Siberian Army
I have prepared this copy of the above study for submission to the President Inasmuch as it points out the desirability of certain action by the United States. It is requested that you decide whether or not it should go forward.


(signed) Sherman Miles
SHERMAN MILES
Brigadier General, U. S. Army,
Acting Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2.

(EXHIBITS OF THE JOINT COMMITTEE, PHA, PT. 14, EXHIBIT NO. 33 MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES PREPARED BY G-2, WAR DEPARTMENT)

I. B. 144

October 21, 1941.
Memorandum for the Chief of Staff:
Subject: The Kwantung versus the Siberian Army
(For Situation Map see Tab A.)
1. The best information available to this Division indicates the strengths of the Siberian forces east of Lake Baikal and the Japanese Kwantung Army in Manchoukuo to be approximately as indicated below:


Kwantung Army | Siberian Army
Infantry ........ 25 Divs. (450,000 men) | 31 Divs. (540,000 men).
Cavalry ......... 4 Brigs. ( 12,000 men) | 10 Divs. ( 75,000 men).
R. R. Guards .... 36 Bns. ( 72,000 men) | ______
Tanks ............ 7 Regts. ( 1,750 tanks)| 10 Brigs. ( 1,600 tanks).
Air Corps ........ 7 Regts. ( 500 planes) | 10 Divs. ( 1,677 planes).
Army Troops and overhead .... 150,000 men | 25,000 men.
Total Man Power.............. 684,000 men | 682,000 men.
2. It is to be noted that the Siberian Army is relatively strong in cavalry and in planes at present. However, the Japanese inferiority in the air could be quickly altered by shifting from China (where Japan is practically unopposed in the air) the bulk of the Japanese air forces operating with the ground forces in that area.

3. Although the quality of the present leadership of the two opposing forces has not been tested, the consensus of opinion here is that the leadership in the Siberian and in the Japanese forces is the best in their respective armies.

4. In general, the materiel and equipment in neither force is comparable to the latest types in use by the German, British and American armies. Russian medium and heavy tanks are believed to be superior to similar equipment in the Kwantung Army.

5. Weather conditions during the fall and winter months give a slight advantage to the Siberian Army, inasmuch as the Japanese, as a people, have not had time to be come inured to the rigors of the extreme cold prevalent in Siberia during these months.

6. Neither the Siberian nor the Kwantung Army has a sufficient superiority over the other, at present, to warrant an offensive. This situation may change, however, in the near future if the Siberian force or any large part thereof is moved westward to strengthen the forces in European Russia. The Kwantung Army, on the other hand, has doubled in strength since July 1, 1941, and it is fairly certain that Japan will continue to strengthen this army with whatever men and equipment she can spare from China and Japan Proper.

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7. If and when the Kwantung Army feels that it has a combat superiority over the Siberian army of 2 to 1 it is highly probable that it will take the offensive regardless of the policy and intentions of the Tokyo Government. When this ratio rises to 3 to 1 or better the probability will become a certainty.

8. This being true, it is very much to our interest, so long as Russia continues to offer active resistance to Germany, to take whatever steps may be possible to maintain the present Russian equality in combat strength vis-a-vis the Kwantung Army. Two such practicable steps immediately present themselves:

a. Increased aid to China, to enable the latter to continue to pin to the ground in North, Central and South China the bulk of the Japanese Army.

b. Increased aid to the Russian armies both in Europe and Siberia.


SHERMAN MILES
Brigadier General U. S. Army
Acting Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2.

Enc.: Map [1]
Distribution:
The President
Secretary of State
Secretary of War
Under Secretary of War
Assistant Secretary of War
Assistant Secretary of War for Air
Chief of Staff
Coordinator of Information
Director of Naval Intelligence
Assistant Chief of Staff, W. P. D.
G. H. Q.
General Embick.

(EXHIBITS OF THE JOINT COMMITTEE, PHA, PT. 14, EXHIBIT NO. 33 MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES PREPARED BY G-2, WAR DEPARTMENT)